Will Refining and Chemical Projects Construct？
With the increasing downward pressure of the world economy and the slowdown of the growth of oil demand, the start-up rate of global refineries has decreased in 2018. After 2000, transnational giants such as Basf and Dow have transformed into specialty chemicals with higher profits, and central enterprises such as Sinopec have also transformed into superior chemicals. Private enterprises such as Hengli Petrochemical Company and Zhejiang Petrochemical Company have launched tens of millions of tons of integrated refining and chemical projects. Many Shandong people have therefore raised the question of "when can Shandong have a large refining and chemical project?" We should know that Hengli and Zhejiang Petrochemical Company have sandwiched Shandong in the middle. After the two major refineries were put into operation, Shandong's pressure can be imagined.
Statistics show that there are more than 20 large-scale refining and chemical projects in China, some of which have entered the stage of commissioning. The diversified oil market pattern of state-owned enterprises, local refineries, joint ventures, wholly foreign-owned enterprises and privately-owned refineries and petrochemical integration has initially taken shape. Shandong Geotechnical Refining is facing a more open competitive environment. As a big brother of chemical industry for many years, can Shandong Province develop its own distinct refining projects on the same level as Hengli and Zhejiang Petrochemical Refining Projects?
After 2018, private petrochemical enterprises such as Zhejiang Petrochemical Company began to strive to realize the integration of refining and petrochemical industry cluster. However, at present, the mode of Shandong local refining enterprises is still dominated by refining, and some enterprises begin to take bulk chemical products as a sub-model. In addition, Shandong Province vigorously carries out the transformation of new and old kinetic energy. It is also in the way of actively developing high-end industries and integration of refining and chemical industry. So, how far is the refining and chemical project in Shandong Province from us?
Shandong does not need Shangda Refining and Chemical Project?
Shandong refining and chemical industry has long occupied the status of "one brother" in China. The data show that the crude oil processing capacity of Shandong Province is 210 million tons per year, accounting for 28% of the total crude oil processing capacity in China. Among them, the local refining capacity is 130 million tons per year, accounting for 70% of the total national refining capacity.
In February 2018, Shandong Province Government issued the "Implementing Plan for Major Project of Changing New and Old Kinetic Energy in Shandong" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan") which showed that the province "traditional industry accounts for about 70% of the industry and heavy chemical industry accounts for about 70% of the traditional industry". With the stringent environmental protection situation in recent years, the task of overcapacity elimination and backward capacity elimination is arduous, and the pressure of transformation and upgrading of refining and chemical industry is enormous.
Based on this, in the past two years, Shandong Province has put forward a series of top-level ideas to promote the transformation and upgrading of the petrochemical industry. It is clear that "to build a strong province of high-end chemical industry, by 2022, the added value of high-end chemical industry will strive to reach 510 billion yuan, accounting for 5.1% of the GDP of the region". The purpose of Shandong Province to promote the integration and transfer of georefining industry is to further improve the regional concentration of georefining industry, significantly enhance the integration of refining and petrochemical industry and scale intensification, initially form a series of high-end petrochemical industry chains, realize the transformation from "one oil is dominant" to "both oil and petrochemical industry". The quality of development and competitiveness of the industry are obviously enhanced...
So we can see that Shandong is not in a hurry, the government is still very supportive of the integration of refining and petrochemical projects and the construction of high-end petrochemical industry chain. Under the impetus of the national multi-point blossom of the integrated petrochemical project, Shandong Province has also put forward the idea of building an integrated petrochemical project of 20 million tons or more at the international leading level, in order to meet the needs of the high-end development of the chemical industry in Shandong Province. This has been responded positively by local governments and enterprises.
Who will be on the Dalian Refining and Chemical Project?
The government is very supportive, but also coincides with Hengli Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical and other private enterprises to work fast, and continue to mount tens of millions of tons of refining and chemical integration projects. Under such a background, which company is responsible for Shandong Province's refining and chemical projects? Which company has the relevant strength?
It is reported that the Dongying Municipal Government intends to build 20 million tons of integrated refining and chemical projects and supporting 2 million tons/year aromatic hydrocarbon units in Dongying Hekou District; not long ago, the Yantai Government also indicated that it would strive for the construction of Wanhua Yulong integrated new materials project in Longkou as soon as possible, which may contain 20 million tons-40 million tons/year capacity. According to market information, the medium-energy industrial park planned by China Energy Engineering Group in Guangrao County of Dongying City also contains 15 million tons/year refining capacity, and Lanqiao Group also has 15 million tons/year large-scale refining and chemical planning.
However, there is a set of data. As of 2018, there are about 51 local refineries in Shandong Province which maintain normal or intermittent production (excluding long-term ineffective capacity). Among them, 60% are refineries with a processing capacity of less than 3 million tons per year, while only 20% are refineries with a processing capacity of more than 5 million tons per year. Objectively speaking, most of the refining and chemical related enterprises in Shandong are at the middle and low end of the value chain.
As early as 2017, Shandong Refining and Chemical Group was formally established in Jinan with a registered capital of 90 billion yuan. The group was led by Dongming Petrochemical Company and 16 local refining enterprises jointly invested. The purpose of the group is to promote deeper cooperation among local refineries, optimize and integrate the allocation of local refineries in raw material procurement, logistics distribution, capital circulation and product optimization, realize the overall planning of capital and logistics, and improve the core competitiveness and discourse power of the refining industry.
However, up to now, there is no clear information indicating that Shandong Refining and Chemical Energy Group intends to embark on 10 million tons of information on integrated refining and chemical projects.
Will the Geotechnical Refining Association choose the Shangda Refining and Chemical Project?
Refining is a low-profit industry. Enterprises make profits by processing crude oil and selling finished oil. Generally, their profits will not exceed 20%.
The situation of excess refining capacity has become very serious. According to the economic technology of China Petroleum Group
Because of this, these companies hope to gain additional profits through the operation of crude oil futures or other futures. However, it is also easy to generate huge revenue risks and financial difficulties, and there is no way to talk about large refining and chemical projects.
Choose Dalian Refining or Inner Work?
As we mentioned earlier, both the government and enterprises are in the right direction to develop refining and chemical enterprises. But why has there been no movement? In fact, the refining enterprises in Shandong must first practice their own internal skills.
"Optimizing restructuring, reducing integration, increasing pressure and reducing pressure, and integrating refining and chemical industry", the 16-word principle of Shandong's capacity integration planning seems simple, but it is not easy to land. Among them, the target of reducing annual production capacity from 130 million tons to 90 million tons is not only the reduction of 40 million tons, but also a series of thorny issues such as financial relations, personnel relations and the impact on regional economic development.
At the same time, the survival threshold of georefinery industry will be further raised to 5 million tons/year from 2 million tons/year which was generally accepted in the previous industry to 3 million tons/year which is now a breakthrough proposed by Shandong Province. This shows the determination and confidence of Shandong Province to promote industrial upgrading by "breaking the kettle and sinking the boat".
But does industrial upgrading necessarily mean "abandoning the old and building the new" and "putting more pressure on the small"? Does small capacity mean backwardness? It is worth noting that large refinery and small refinery are relative concepts artificially set. Whether they can be regarded as the only conditions for advanced and backward production capacity remains to be scientifically demonstrated. Statistical data show that up to now, 21 local refineries in Shandong Province have entered the national "regular army" list and obtained "dual rights" (the right to use imported crude oil and the right to import crude oil). Five of them have a capacity of less than 3 million tons per year, and 11 have a capacity of 3 million tons to 5 million tons per year. These enterprises have played a positive role in eliminating backward production capacity and improving the overall level of the refining and chemical industry in accordance with the relevant national documents in the process of "dual power" qualification approval. At this time, if they are defined as backward production capacity and shut down integration, it will inevitably cause controversy.
In fact, the biggest restriction facing Shandong Geotechnical Refining is the poor sales of oil products. In terms of sales, compared with the huge production capacity, the short board of Shandong Geotechnical Refining lies in the small number of its own gas stations, which is the "sticking neck" problem of the development of the local refining industry, which is difficult to solve directly through the integration of production capacity.
"The boat drifted faster in mid-stream, and the road from man to half-mountain was steeper". It is also reasonable that the policy is difficult to achieve immediate results because of the complicated problems. However, as the first refining Province in China and the third largest refining center in the world, the integration of the "big but not strong" refining industry in Shandong is related to the effectiveness of the state's policy opening to private enterprises and the role of the market in the allocation of resources. Therefore, the task is more arduous and the challenge is more severe. The promotion of planning can not be separated from the correct concept and firm determination, but also can not be separated from scientific, rational, pragmatic and exquisite implementation methods.
