2019, the world has ushered in more than 40 years of new refining and production!
At the beginning of 2019, on January 9, the 17-million-ton/year condensate processing project of the Persian Gulf Star Phase III of the Iranian National Oil Company was put into operation. So far, the I-III period totaled 18 million tons/year of refining capacity. Put into production; on January 21, Petronas’s 15 million tons/year-side Garland Refinery Integration Project (RAPID) crude distillation unit was successfully ignited, officially pulled from the sides of the two world refineries in the Middle East and Asia Pacific. It has opened a curtain for the global refining capacity to be put into production for up to one year since the 1970s.
The author of this article is Li Xuejing of China Petroleum and Petrochemical Research Institute, thanking the author for his hard work.
Global refining capacity has experienced steady growth and increased planning and planning projects in 2018 after experiencing a platform period since 2014. Comprehensive agency statistics:
In 2018, the global refining capacity reached 4.95 billion t/a, a net increase of 45 million tons/year compared with 2017, with a total investment of US$46 billion. The new capacity mainly includes meeting the growth of oil demand and/or upgrading the quality of oil products. Required refinery expansion/reconstruction and new construction.
Most of the new refining capacity in 2018 is located in the Asia-Pacific region. The large-scale projects completed and put into operation include China's 20 million tons/year of Hengli Petrochemical, Vietnam's 10 million tons/year Yishan Refining and Chemical Project, and Iran's Persian Gulf Star Phase 2 6 million. Tons/year of condensate processing project.
The most productive in more than 40 years
According to the statistics of the new project database of Hydrocarbon Processing magazine, more than 400 new refinery projects have been announced so far.
Among them, Asia Pacific accounts for about 30%, the Middle East accounts for about 23%, Europe/Russia/CIS accounts for about 15%, Latin America accounts for about 12%, the United States accounts for about 10%, Africa accounts for about 7%, and Canada accounts for about 3%. These projects include the construction of new secondary processing units and new refineries.
The IEA expects that 2019 will be the year in which the world's new refining capacity will be put into production the most since the 1970s. The new capacity will reach 130 million tons/year, with the main capacity concentrated in China and the Middle East. In addition to the above-mentioned two projects in Iran and Malaysia that have been put into production in January, it will be followed by China's Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase I 20 million tons/year refining project, which is scheduled to be completed in the first quarter.
Big project blows the assembly horn
Also named by Hydrocarbon Processing magazine as the most influential refining project in 2018, Saudi Aramco's 20 million tons/year Jizan refinery project, which will invest US$7 billion and is expected to become 2019. Saudi Arabia's largest refining project.
The KNPC AL-ZOUR refinery project of Kuwait National Petroleum Corporation has a refining capacity of 30.75 million tons per year. Upon completion, it will become the largest refinery in the Middle East and is scheduled to be put into operation in the second half of 2019.
The $3 billion 32.5 million ton/year Nigerian Dangote refinery is scheduled to go into production in 2019 and will be the world's largest single-series refinery, including a 32.5 kt/yr crude distillation unit designed to produce 20 million units. The ton/year of gasoline and diesel also includes 3.6 million tons/year of polypropylene and 3 million tons/year of urea. Some institutions believe that it may be postponed until 2022.
China's 20 million tons / year Hengli Petrochemical successfully decommissioned daily decompression on December 16, 2018, will be fully produced in 2019, and the 10 million tons / year Zhongke Refining and Chemicals Phase I project is scheduled to be completed by the end of the year.
According to another report, the world's largest refining base, the 62 million tons/year Indian Xincheng Industrial Jamnagar Refining Center, is also considering to continue to add 30 million tons/year of refining capacity for processing heavy sulfur-containing crude oil. A feasibility study report is expected at the end of 2019.
The “three-oriented” trend of large projects
These refinery projects that are about to be put into production fully reflect the trend of the refining industry in the direction of large-scale, large-scale, and integrated. The refining capacity is generally above 15 million tons/year, of which KNPCAL-ZOUR refinery and Dangote refinery exceed 30 million t/a, and Zhejiang Petrochemical I and II projects will be fully completed and will reach 40 million tons/year of refining capacity. .
These projects are basically large-scale refining and chemical integration projects, and the refining and chemical integration model also extends from refining and ethylene integration to refining, ethylene, and aromatics integration. For example, Zhejiang Petrochemical has a refining capacity of 40 million tons per year, an ethylene capacity of 2.8 million tons per year, and an aromatic capacity of 18,000 tons per year.
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The Dangote refinery in Nigeria, under construction, has a refining capacity of 32.5 million tons/year, supporting 3.6 million tons/year of polypropylene and 3 million tons/year of urea. These enterprises have a high degree of refining and chemical integration, a large scale of production, and adopt the world's leading or advanced level of process technology, production operation and management level.
In 2019, such large-scale new capacity was put into production, and the IEA estimated that the market could only digest less than half of the newly added capacity in that year.
The world's refining industry will face increasing risks of overcapacity, lower operating rates and lower gross profit, resulting in more intense market competition. Some refineries with small scale, outdated equipment, backward technology and poor competitiveness will be forced to shut down, including The refining pattern in some areas of China will be reshuffled and should be highly valued by the industry. It must be based on global vision and market orientation, plan ahead and take the initiative.